The fuse is lit on what is an annual Debt ceiling debate the commercial real Estate bubble is beginning to show some Very troubling signs becoming more Obvious that we covered several months Ago in the channel Russia's digging in Even as Ukrainian forces position troops Behind the Enemy Lines and strike mere Kilometers from the Russian border China Is losing its ability to remain neutral As its diplomats speak out of term in Anger Europe all that and more plus Another great giveaway that you can Enter for free all of this in the Addition of news that you need to know This week so let's jump in debt ceiling It may be Politics as Usual in America From both sides of the political Spectrum as a debt ceiling Looms in Neither side of the political spectrum Is really willing to bend agree or make Any concessions to the other now we are Here again just six weeks or less before A full stop on the United States economy And both parties are really digging in For a fight but will we have a fight or Merely a few grumbles in a whimper if Congress doesn't approve the limit on How much the treasury can borrow the So-called debt ceiling the federal Government will not have enough money to Pay all of its obligations by as early As June now such a breakdown at this Time could spark a more significant
Global Financial pennant and further Road confidence in the dollar as we Frequently point out in other videos the Push for many countries to transact in Currencies other than the dollar will Become stronger if America begins to Faulting on its debt obligations or has Its credit rating slash that actually Occurred a decade ago because of the Debt ceiling annual debate now house Speaker Kevin McCarty has released a Plan that is caucus broadly backed on Wednesday the GOP proposal would slash The federal budget back to levels Adopted in the 2022 fiscal year which Would amount to 130 billion in spending Cuts for 2024. now the bill has some Vague elements as it leaves a task to Lawmakers on Congressional appropriation Committees who craft spinning bills that Keep the government running and Stave Off a shutdown now despite its vagueness In some categories there are some Discernible points of the plan like Requiring supplemental nutrition Assistance program or snap recipients to Work 80 hours per month in employment or Community service or risk losing their Nutritional assistance benefits another Point of the plan would block the Cancellation of student debt and yet Another point of the plan would claw Back the 80 billion dollars that set Aside to improve the IRS and keep it
Functioning enough to offset typical Attrition rates over the next decade now There are also proposals in the bill That would repeal non fossil fuel base And Simmons and take back unspent Coveted dollars now while there's Probably room for compromise between the Two sides is compromise possible or does It remain a dirty word in Washington if I was a betting man I wouldn't bet on Compromise on either side of the aisle Many GOP lawmakers appear prepared to Allow the nation to default without Accepting major spending cuts and policy Changes in the house speaker and the GOP Need at least some reforms from the Administration to demonstrate that they Are still strong and United enough now One of the major challenges for McCarty Will be whether he can keep his party Together his nomination to the Speakership was challenging to say the Least and the White House has already Indicated it would be willing to meet With any Congressional leaders not just McCarty to have a separate conversation About the budget Now The Binding Administration doesn't believe that the GOP has a popular mandate it thinks it Does since Republicans fail to retake The Senate and only captured a house by A handful of seats the administration Also doesn't want to appear as if They're rewarding the GOP for what it
Perceives as Republicans holding the U.S Economy hostage now this debate always Comes down to who is left holding the Bag regardless of which side of the Issue you personally fall on with this Issue politics in America is driven Blessed by working together for the Common good of the population and more On making the other side look weak Whichever side can convince the populace The other side is responsible for a Shutdown or a possible shutdown ends up Holding all the cards eventually the Party that is left appearing to show Unnecessary and harmful brinkmanship With the delicate U.S economy is a party That is forced to acquiesce now both Sides are at the digging in Phase Assessing and consolidating their forces And making early attempts at swing and Coalescing public opinion The Showdown May be inevitable dramatically impacting Your financial future and I think that's A key takeaway here if neither side Bends on the issue and again this is not A statement indicating which side is Right wrong but rather pointing to What's playing out which is a game of Chicken the loser will be the American Economy if this issue is not resolved Now both sides May welcome negotiations On government spending which may resolve This crisis Americans are increasingly More vocal about the fact that they
Don't believe business as usual is Sustainable still polls show that they Are against finding those cuts with Programs in the social safety net if no Cap is implemented the U.S will only Continue to pile on more debt and that Is equally problematic and increasingly More difficult to justify to the American people each time now both sides Could emerge with what they could spin As sort of a win if we all collectively Get too close to the debt ceiling drop Dead date the U.S can't pay its bills And as a result financial markets will React negatively the cost of doing Businesses with other countries will Increase and government workers at both The federal and state levels May find Themselves downsized or even furloughed What has prevented the most extreme Aspects of this in the past has been Mega donor Business Leaders that usually Step in and demand that we don't get to That point after all such a climate Dramatically reduces their ability to do Business and make a profit a downgrading Of the US economy will result in a Permanent increase in U.S borrowing Costs and that will [ __ ] U.S business Abroad in the long term The Binding Administration is stating that they're Confident that pressure from Big Business Leaders will prevent too great Of a backslide but putting your faith in
Big Business Leaders to save today may Be placing too much confidence in their Abilities to steer ever increasingly Divisive political factions Corporate America doesn't really have as much Clout with the GOP as it did during the Obama Administration so the levers that Have been in place to be pulled in the Past to fix these issues don't really Appear to be with us in the present and We may get a glimmer of how bad this Might be this week as early as Wednesday When the house votes on the speaker's Limit it save grow act it isn't a Guarantee that the speaker has a 218 Votes locked up for his debt limit bill Just five Republicans no votes who fill The bill does it go far enough or Moderates who think the bill could Launch a perilous conflict amiss a Recession with the United States economy As a victim and the bill would fill now Failure to pass a law with Democrats Could spark a global economic meltdown Making the necessary compromises could Put McCarty's job in the crosshairs Again after Wednesday's vote Wall Street Will either brace for a massive Showdown Or it's going to show confidence in the Market and Wall Street investors Finance The country's enormous debt by buying The Securities at treasury sells to fund The government and if they shy away from The market interest rates could
Skyrocket squeezing the government Businesses and consumers and right now Bankers and investors are sitting on Their hands and waiting for the outcome Of the vote on the bill though Biden Needs a win as the country slides into a Recession McCarty may be the one with The most at stake right now McCarty had To agree to a freedom caucus demand that Deep spinning Cuts be tied to any hike In the debt ceiling he also agreed to Another crucial demand that reinstates a House rule in which a single lawmaker Can force a vote to ounce the sitting Speaker at any time and right now any Member of the House can make a motion to Vacate with just one member currently The GOP has a narrow four-seat majority In all likelihood the house bill will Get enough GOP support to kick it up to The Democratic alleged Senate as Everyone tries to set everyone else up For the blame and ultimately the Responsibility for shutting the Government down now the best advice I Could give you would be to brace for Long battle and more political Brinkmanship over the economy all Throughout the summer we know we are Entering a recession so prep your Finances like any other preps we can Never truly know if this recession will Slide into a deeper depression and we Don't know how impactful other factors
Like the war or banking crisis might Come into play what do you think are we Heading to another once in a decade Fight over the debt limit that will Derail the U.S economy for good this Time let me know your thoughts in the Comments below Commercial bubble one of the unknown Blows of the economy that may be about To surface is the commercial real estate Bubble bursting more media Outlets are Increasingly warning about the downward Spiral that's really playing out at this Time in the commercial real estate Market we warned about the indicators That were emerging on this channel last Summer last year and many of our Predictions then may be coming to pass In the coming next few months now while Commercial real estate has experienced Its share of bust in recent decades this Future downturn definitely has more dry Powder to it landlords are continuing With changes in how people work live and Shop which require fewer physical spaces And failing tenant demand there's also Been a sudden surge in interest rates Which cause property values especially Commercial property values to fall the Actual mechanisms and conditions of Acquiring a commercial real estate loan Significantly differ from traditional Real estate loans and may harm this Sector's nimbleness commercial real
Estate loans are often conditioned on Shareholder approval to raise your lower Rents which can lead to indefinite Vacancies the U.S office vacancy rate Reached a milestone in the first quarter When it Rose to 12.9 percent exceeding The peak vacancy rate during the 2008 Financial crisis now even if you have no Skin as they say in the commercial real Estate game it's worth keeping an eye on Only because there are trillions of Dollars tied up in it don't think that You're safe because you don't own Commercial real estate your bank or your Employer might be heavily leveraged in This failing market and that can mean That as a sufferer they will seek to Push those losses onto you through Higher interest rates on borrowing Stricter loan conditions removing Bonuses suspending pay raises or even Downsizing none of those build consumer Confidence in the economy further Slowing spinning and reversing growth And while this may be an anecdotal Observation on my part A good friend of Mine works in the commercial loan Industry and he recently informed me That it's getting uglier by the day They're canceling multiple loans and Making it very difficult for businesses To get loans on these properties so we May be near a Tipping Point however not All commercial real estate markets are
About to suffer large warehouses and Data centers benefit from remote workers And consumers commercial real estate in The form of Apartments is also strong as Rents remain high and a housing shortage Persists still many big Banks and Investment firms have trillions of Dollars tied up on their balance sheets With overpriced high rent properties With significantly decreasing demand When all that comes to the surface it's Not going to look good for the balance Sheets of banks already struggling to Keep their heads above water now two of The largest owners of commercial real Estate Blackstone and the Brookville Corporation they're all straining under The pressure of this massive downward Pressure Blackstone reported the profits From the sale of assets fell 4.4 billion Over the last quarter down 54 from the 9.5 billion it cashed in during the First quarter of last year now Brookfield Corporation has defaulted on Nearly a billion dollars worth of Commercial real estate debt just this Year Morgan Stanley has warned that Commercial property prices could suffer From a crash as deep as the 2008 crisis And could see commercial property prices Eventually plummet forty percent or more From their peaks UBS employed a less Dire tone arguing that commercial real Estate headlines are worse in reality
And I don't presume to know as much About the financial markets as these Banking Giants do but UBS also cites the Health of the overall banking system as A sign this crisis wouldn't get too bad And the losses can be absorbed if last Month taught us anything it's that the Banking system is more fragile than we Thought and may not be as healthy as Many think whatever occurs in the Commercial real estate market the rest Of this year we will have some glimmer Of how bad this will get for the economy When over a trillion dollars worth of Mortgage loans mature next year if we're Still amiss a global recession that can Be a death Mill if we are in a recovery Phase by then we may be able to absorb That collectively what do you think There's a bursting of the commercial Real estate bubble the next shove to Push the economy over the edge let us Know your take on this in the comments Section below Russia Ukraine Ukraine may Be ramping up it's counter-offensive and Russia is taking up defensive positions Ukraine has conducted several shaping Operations small probing attacks meant To confuse the Russians and obfuscate Ukraine's actual point of attack now Ukraine has asked for media silence to Further the Russian anxiousness of an Inevitable attack and last night's Surface drones again attacked the
Russian Fleet near Sebastopol deep in Crimea now the strategy of these smaller Efforts is to overwhelm Russian military Leadership and confuse and to see the Russian forces at least one of these Small penetrations of the Russian Frontline may have been Ukrainian forces Crossing the Nipper River and entering The occupied Left Bank of the Christian River if this incursion that Russian Bloggers are reporting is accurate Ukraine may be engaged in sabotage Efforts or small assault far behind the Front lines it's not likely to be the Spear point of a counter-offensive However because of the difficulty faring The river since Russia has blown the Main Bridges now the Russian installed Head of Ukraine's southern kershan Region denied the reports that Ukrainian Forces had taken up positions on the Juniper Rivers Eastern Bank if Russia Pulls its forces from but moved to Support other areas Ukraine could gain a Psychological win in the eyes of the World in the Russian forces by regaining Full control of the city at best it's Just a psychological win only in the City which has been reduced to Rubble After eight months of a bloody standoff Showing and fighting before the war it Was a mining city with a population of Seventy thousand and the current Population it's estimated to be under 3
000 today but mooth really lacks overall Strategic and operational importance but It may be Putin's hubris as Russia's Obliges Ukraine by throwing more or more Warm Bodies into what the Wagner group Is called a meat grinder meanwhile Ukrainian forces continue to strike far Behind russian-controlled lines most Recently occupation authorities have Blamed a Ukrainian drone for a fire Depot in the rovinsky in the luhansk Region rovinski is 100 kilometers from The front lines in Ukraine in just 30 Kilometers from Ukraine's border with Russia now the deputy foreign minister Of Ukraine said that for the war to end In 2023 Ukraine has to received 10 times More military aid than it has received From its Partners over the past year in One division of patriot anti-aircraft Missile systems has been deployed to Ukraine and more coming there is record Global spending on the military Worldwide spurned by the Ukrainian War Europeans spinning on the war shot up 13 Percent in U.S spending accounted for 2.4 percent of the total U.S military Spending in 2022. now Russian's military Spending has grown by an estimated 9.2 Percent and that his estimate that the World spinning has reached an all-time High of 2.24 trillion dollars the Evasion of Ukraine reveal that the U.S Stockpile of 155 millimeter shells and
Those of European allies were unprepared To support a major and ongoing Conventional land War sending them to Scramble to bolster production now the Dwindling supply has alarmed U.S Military planners the Army plans to Spend billions on munition plans Nationwide in its most significant Transformation in 40 years and this is Partially to supply Ukraine throughout a Prolonged battle but it's also viewed as A means to dissuade China from its Confrontation in the South China Sea That the U.S army is spending about 1.5 Billion dollars to ramp up production of 155 millimeter rounds from 14 000 a Month before Russian invaded Ukraine to Over 85 000 a month by 2028. in mid-may Ukrainian forces about 250 of them are Going to be trained in Germany on the Abrams tank and will be supplied with These refurbished tanks in Ukraine by Mid-august the train will take at least 10 weeks so this tank isn't going to be A game changer on the battlefield until At least August and while a Counteroffensive will occur there's Still a lot of uncertainty about when Russia seems to think it's any day now They have begun forcibly evacuating Civilians in croissant and it appears That except for batmuth Russian forces Have moved to defensive positions Throughout Ukraine the Russia Ukraine
Conflict is going to continue to put a Strain on troubled economies throughout The world so are we on the cusp of a Ukrainian counter-offensive is the Ukrainian offensive underway forcing Russia to reveal its cards as to where Is digging in and where it can be Attacked with success what do you think Let us know your thoughts in the Comments section below Giveaway For this week's giveaway we're going to Give away a hard case first aid kit to Be eligible for a chance to win in this Giveaway just simply post a comment Below and click the like button and for The next video later this week I'll use A tool to draw the winner from the Comments on this video randomly for this Last week's winner of the potassium Iodide tablets the winner is a Subscriber the crazy Mexican I'll reach Out to you shortly to get that sent to You China China continues the struggle to play Both sides of the fence they try to make The world Happy by portraying themselves As peace Brokers yet they Pander to Russia most recently China's ambassador To France said in an interview that the Former Soviet countries do not have an Effective status in international law Because there is no International
Agreement that gives substance to their Status as a sovereign country this Drew Sharp criticism from lithuania's Minister of Foreign Affairs who tweeted If anyone is still wondering why the Baltic states don't trust China to Broker peace in Ukraine here's a Chinese Ambassador arguing that Crimea is Russian and other countries borders have No legal basis Latvia Lithuanian Estonian they all said they would summon Their respective Chinese ambassadors to Seek clarification on the controversial Comment Beijing appeared to be Scrambling on Monday to contain the Fallout from comments by its top Diplomat in Paris the government in Beijing seemed to downplay the top Diplomats remarks emphasizing China's Preferred role as an honest broker in The war and any Russian Eur European Strife now later the Chinese Embassy in Paris released a statement that the Comments were not expressing official Policy but rather the ambassador's Personal views that should not be over Interpreted now the Chinese Embassy has Posted the entire transcript of the Diplomats exchange on the WeChat account But they have since deleted all the Records of it China's ability to pretend To be neutral in the conflict may have Run its course in other areas the Largest ever annual military exercises
Between the United States and the Philippines which this year for the First time included a focus on the Defense of the northern Philippines in Preparations for conflict if China moves To take Taiwan through Force are Underway right now Bosco Island where The drills are being performed is just 100 miles south of Taiwan and as a Strategic Philippine position for Defending the Strategic Bashi Channel Now the channel about 70 miles wide and Bordered by the southern tip of Taiwan And the cluster of islands that include Bosco provides a Chinese Navy with Access to the east coast of Taiwan in The specific including for submarines From their main base at the southern Island of Hanan Australia is determined To be another strong power in this Increasingly hotly contested area most Recently Australia has said the Acquisition of nuclear power submarines A long-range strike capabilities and its Northern bases will be among the Country's six priority areas after a Major review of the defense strategy Found the armed forces were not fully Fit for purpose recognizing the Increasing multi-polar control in the Area Australia has partnered with the United States even while they seek to Repair damaged relations with Beijing Australia's Deputy Prime Minister and
Defense minister has said Australia will Continue to cooperate with China where We can disagree where we must manage our Differences wisely and above all else Engage and vigorously pursue our own National interests what do you think are We closer to a conflict in this region Or is this just another day in the South China Sea let us know your thoughts in The comments section below from the Debate over the debt ceiling to the Commercial real estate bubble collapsing To a Ukrainian counter-offensive and Arms flowing into the country to China's Continued pressure on the world stage There can be no doubt that some of these Conflicts are being continuously packed Tighter and Tighter with dry powder it's Simply a matter of time before spark Occurs somewhere which could lead to all These seemingly separate events igniting All at once and I always encourage folks To stay ahead of these things by Prepping what they can now when Wars Start or intensify trade deals are Called into question or economy suffer Through significant troughs our daily Lives are impacted even if we are Thousands of miles from the conflict Zone the way to insulate yourself from These Global troubles is to prep locally Prepping removes you from being just Part of the equation your increased Self-sufficiency and ability to endure
The most struggling times will be a game Changer so I hope you prep today for the Troubles these signs point to in the Future as always stay safe out there
